Showing posts with label democracy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label democracy. Show all posts

2025/04/24

Why are the world’s uber‑wealthy quietly snapping up off‑grid estates worldwide?

 Why are the world’s uber‑wealthy quietly snapping up off‑grid estates worldwide?


The helipad blades settle into silence far faster than my heartbeat does. I’m standing on a cliff‑edge meadow in Wyoming’s Gros Ventre Range, staring at a freshly poured concrete pad that looks suspiciously bunker‑sized. The estate agent—tanned, Patagonia‑puffed, impeccable teeth—whispers the builder’s name and the asking price with the same practiced reverence someone else might reserve for a Caravaggio. Before I can reply, he gestures at the snow‑dusted Tetons to our west and murmurs, “Views like that will outlive any market cycle.” He’s probably right, but the phrase that flashes through my mind is less poetic and more urgent: bolt‑hole.

We are living in a moment where uncertainty has become a lifestyle variable to be aggressively hedged—no different from currency risk or carbon exposure. For the “one‑percent of the one‑percent,” the hedge increasingly takes the shape of remote ranches, regenerative farms, private islands, and multilevel underground fortresses. And while Instagram keeps beaming us high‑gloss images of penthouse infinity pools, the truly transformational real‑estate action is happening hundreds of miles from the nearest Hermes storefront. According to the Knight Frank Wealth Report 2025, nearly half of global family offices surveyed plan to expand their allocations to “defensive real assets,” with rural land topping the wish list.

The shift isn’t just portfolio theory; it’s psychology. In private dinners and closed‑door Zoom rooms, I keep hearing the same cocktail of anxieties: geopolitical brinkmanship, supply‑chain fragility, and a climate system that now lurches from biblical drought to once‑in‑a‑century floods several times a year. “It felt irresponsible not to buy something self‑sustaining,” a Singapore‑based crypto founder told me after wiring eight figures for a 5,000‑acre Tasmanian property ring‑fenced by eucalyptus forests and satellite internet. I asked what finally pushed him over the line. “Watching container ships stack outside the port last year,” he said. “I suddenly realised my wealth was a stack of IOUs sitting on somebody else’s spreadsheet.”

If that sounds melodramatic, consider the evidence. Rural land values in the United States eked out a rise last year while almost every urban luxury index softened or slumped. The Bloomberg Family Office Survey tallies institutional farmland funds at more than US $16 billion—double the figure of three years ago. And then there’s the real‑world breadcrumb trail of billionaire purchases: Joe Ricketts dropping a reported US $160 million on Granite Creek Ranch near Jackson Hole; the secretive Flannery Associates amassing 60,000 acres of Solano County farmland for their speculative “California Forever” city; Peter Thiel’s slow‑burn quest to carve a James Bond‑worthy compound above Lake Wānaka in New Zealand. Even if only half the rumours around these projects are true, the shape of a pattern emerges.

The public‑facing logic is almost quaint. Buyers cite privacy, nature, maybe a dab of “regenerative agriculture” to cushion the optics. But spend enough time with wealth managers and a different vocabulary surfaces: redundancyresilience planningcontinuity of governance. One Zurich‑based advisor told me his clients have begun mapping properties against global water‑scarcity projections. Another in Texas says anything within a four‑hour drive of a private‑jet‑capable runway is now “Tier 1 inventory.” If the real‑estate market once hinged on location, location, location, today’s mantra, for some, is isolation, elevation, hydration.

Elevation matters because wildfire smoke and rising oceans don’t (yet) climb mountains. Isolation reduces the risk of civil unrest reaching your perimeter fence. Hydration—well, when the IPCC talks about “compound water‑related risks” across continents, a spring-fed creek suddenly becomes more precious than the most elaborate chandelier. That calculus is why a Colorado broker I trust saw bidding wars erupt over properties with verified aquifers, even in months when the broader luxury market cooled.

Lest we imagine this is all tasteful ranch houses and boutique vineyards, we should talk bunkers. In Switzerland, Oppidum’s “L’Heritage” series offers blast‑proof villas disguised under alpine meadows, price on application, queue out the door. In the US, Rising S Company claims 400 percent growth in inquiries since 2020. These aren’t the apocalyptic concrete tubes preppers fantasised about in the nineties; they’re more like subterranean Mandarin Orientals—wine cellars, bowling alleys, gene‑therapy suites. A handful of clients, I’m told, are shipping down entire seed libraries to ensure fresh arugula in year five of any hypothetical lockdown.

At the softer end of the spectrum lie “climate refuges” that double as status playgrounds. Private‑island sales rose nearly 60 percent during the pandemic, according to boutique brokerage Concierge Auctions, and the momentum hasn’t subsided. The pitch decks read like techno‑utopian travelogues: desalination plants, solar microgrids, drone delivery pads. One island development in Fiji promises an on‑site “medical concierge” partnered with a US teaching hospital—because medevac times are so 2019.

Whatever the guise—bug‑out bunker or blue‑water idyll—the undertone is identical: you can’t outsource existential security, and the truly affluent have stopped trying. If that sounds like the ultimate luxury, it also echoes a darker mood. The historian Niall Ferguson once described our era as a “progressive era of maximum fragility masked by maximum complexity.” The richer you are, the more attuned you become to that fragility. It’s one thing to read about supply‑chain vulnerabilities; it’s another to watch your global logistics firm scramble for dry‑ice pallets so your biologics don’t perish en route to a clinic in Málaga.

Critics view the land‑grab as 21st‑century feudalism, a transfer of the most finite resource—land—into even fewer hands. There’s merit to the charge. Ask locals in Solano County, California, who woke to find their family farms surrounded by shell companies with billion‑dollar war chests and big, if blurry, visions. Ask Māori leaders in New Zealand’s South Island, where legacy stations are being subdivided into heli‑ski estates with minimal public consultation. Wealth has always bent zoning laws, but never has it bent them in the name of building private lifeboats quite so explicitly.

And yet, as a writer who has spent the better part of a decade interrogating both the promises and perils of self‑reliance, I recognise another dimension: the allure of autonomy. In a world where digital feeds compress every outrage into the same luminous rectangle, there’s something primal about owning enough land that you can stand in the middle of it and, for a moment, hear only wind. The tragedy—if we can call it that—is how unevenly distributed the option has become. Thanks to leveraged meta‑economies and compounding capital gains, the threshold for serious land acquisition has shot skyward faster than most urbanites’ wages. By the time you or I could save a down payment on our own chunk of prairie, some VC‑backed foundation has already erected a lithium‑ion battery farm on it.

Which brings us to Silicon Valley and its ideology of move fast and fix later. The same founders who once evangelised frictionless everything are now commissioning 200‑page resilience audits before buying Colorado ski chalets. They’ve gamified survival: EMP‑hardened servers, low‑e glass rated to stop a .308 round, heritage‑breed chickens for robust egg production. One prominent technologist—whose name you know from every home screen on Earth—keeps an “evacuation stack” consisting of a Gulfstream on annual retainer, a Montana ranch with two landing strips, and a Boring‑Company‑designed tunnel that may or may not tunnel all the way to a trout stream. Are these rational precautions or cosplay for the apocalypse? Perhaps both. But remember: the line between prudence and extravagance blurs when you can wire the cost of an entire county’s yearly budget before lunchtime.

Meanwhile, institutional capital is making the trend sticky. BlackRock, Nuveen, and Hancock have all announced expanded “natural capital” or “sustainable farmland” strategies. The returns are attractive—steady, inflation‑linked, non‑correlated—and ESG branding offers a halo that erases the optics of bunker chic. If you can claim that your 20,000‑acre almond orchard sequesters more carbon than a mid‑size city emits, who’s to begrudge the fiber‑optic cables humming beneath it?

Yet, for every billionaire buying hay meadows, there’s a rural resident worrying about being priced out of the only life they know. When median farmland values triple in little more than a decade—as they have in parts of the American West—teachers, nurses, and mechanics can no longer afford the ground beneath their childhood swing sets. A sociologist in Bozeman told me she has begun calling the phenomenon “climate gentrification,” only half‑joking that Aspenization now happens wherever the altitude’s high enough to escape both wildfire and flood. The carbon credit market only accelerates the process, turning topsoil into another tradable instrument.

What, then, does all this mean for the rest of us—the readers scrolling this on a phone made by yet another company headed for a remote parcel? The impulse might be envy, even resentment. But there’s another interpretation: the uber‑wealthy are, in effect, stress‑testing the limits of the modern nation‑state. If private desalination plants proliferate, perhaps governments will finally get serious about safeguarding public water infrastructure. If regenerative farms become chic enough to plaster across Architectural Digest, maybe we’ll demand the same soil health in the acreage that grows our bread.

I’m not naive enough to believe trickle‑down resilience is a given. But history shows that technologies birthed in luxury often become mass amenities—think of seatbelts, GPS, even the internet itself. Off‑grid microgrids, vertical farms, home battery walls—these may start as billionaire toys, yet the engineering leaps they spawn can (eventually) stoop to your suburban roofline. The question is whether the timeline of dissemination matches the timeline of crisis.

Standing up on that Wyoming cliff, I ask my agent what the owner did for internet redundancy. Starlink, of course. Two dishes, one pointed south for redundancy, a backup LTE tower if SpaceX ever falters. And power? “Eight hundred kilowatts of ground‑mount solar,” he says, then laughs softly: “That’s bigger than the local utility’s peak load.” It’s hard not to feel the absurd contrast: a single family’s retreat wired better than some developing‑world cities. But I also feel, prickling at the edges, an understanding: Everyone hedges with the tools they have. For the billionaires, the hedge is land. For you and me, it might be community, skill‑sharing, a raised bed of tomatoes on a balcony hedge‑fund managers wouldn’t look twice at.

Still, the land story will roll on because capital always seeks the next under‑priced arbitrage. When enough fortunes reposition from REITs to ridgelines, policy follows. Witness Chile’s move to restrict foreign water rights, or Portugal’s cap on golden visas tied to rural property. Even New Zealand, for decades the poster child of blank‑cheque safe havens, slammed the door on most offshore house‑hunters in 2018. That hasn’t stopped the wealthy; it has merely made the deals more labyrinthine—trusts inside LLCs inside bespoke funds run out of the Caymans.

The future, then, may look less like an exodus from cities and more like a portfolio ballet: keep the Mayfair town house for opera season, the Singapore pied‑à‑terre for ease of banking, but redirect serious generational wealth into acreage beyond drone range of any protest march. We’ll see new hybrid lifestyles emerge—kids schooled in urban International Baccalaureates Monday to Thursday, then flown to a high‑altitude homestead stocked with quail eggs and VR headsets for the long weekend. Social scientists will have a field day parsing the psychological split between where I work and where I survive.

And if you’re wondering whether this is all just a fad, remember that in matters of wealth preservation, perception has a tendency to make itself real. When enough capital assumes the world is unstable, it funds the very architectures that anticipate instability—armed gates, private fire brigades, autonomous farms. Paradoxically, those fortifications can erode public faith in common institutions, nudging everyone closer to the dystopia the wealthy have already priced in.

I drive away from the ranch as the sun bleeds into the Snake River valley. The agent stays behind, no doubt prepping for the next client arrival. In the rear‑view mirror the concrete pad shrinks until it’s just a pixel of raw grey in a sea of gold. I’m struck by how little it takes to make a landscape feel unsettled—one helipad, one perimeter fence, one buyer who can afford to bet against the rest of us. But the larger truth settles in my chest as the mountains fade: even if we can’t all buy sanctuaries, we can choose what kind of world we want to live in. The uber‑wealthy are building theirs. The rest of us can still build ours—but the clock is ticking, and the ground under our feet is getting pricier by the minute.

Hundreds of scholars say U.S. is swiftly heading toward authoritarianism

 Hundreds of scholars say U.S. is swiftly heading toward authoritarianism

Transcript
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump looks on during Turning Point USA's AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center on Dec. 22, 2024, in Phoenix. The annual four day conference geared toward energizing and connecting conservative youth hosts some of the country's leading conservative politicians and activists.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump looks on during Turning Point USA's AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center on Dec. 22, 2024, in Phoenix. The annual four day conference geared toward energizing and connecting conservative youth hosts some of the country's leading conservative politicians and activists.

Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

WASHINGTON — A survey of more than 500 political scientists finds that the vast majority think the United States is moving swiftly from liberal democracy toward some form of authoritarianism.

In the benchmark survey, known as Bright Line Watch, U.S.-based professors rate the performance of American democracy on a scale from zero (complete dictatorship) to 100 (perfect democracy). After President Trump's election in November, scholars gave American democracy a rating of 67. Several weeks into Trump's second term, that figure plummeted to 55.

"That's a precipitous drop," says John Carey, a professor of government at Dartmouth and co-director of Bright Line Watch. "There's certainly consensus: We're moving in the wrong direction."

Carey said the decline between November and February was the biggest since Bright Line Watch began surveying scholars on threats to American democracy in 2017. In the survey, respondents consider 30 indicators of democratic performance, including whether the government interferes with the press, punishes political opponents and whether the legislature and the judiciary can check executive authority.

Not all political scientists view Trump with alarm, but many like Carey who focus on democracy and authoritarianism are deeply troubled by Trump's attempts to expand executive power over his first several months in office.

"We've slid into some form of authoritarianism," says Steven Levitsky, a professor of government at Harvard, and co-author of How Democracies Die. "It is relatively mild compared to some others. It is certainly reversible, but we are no longer living in a liberal democracy."

Protesters wave Turkish flags in front of the New Mosque in Istanbul. Despite a government protest ban, mass demonstrations erupted nationwide following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on corruption charges, with crowds demanding democracy and chanting "people, rights, justice." Scholars of democracy view Turkey as a competitive authoritarian regime in which the ruling party uses institutions such as the courts to attack their political opponents.

Protesters wave Turkish flags in front of the New Mosque in Istanbul. Despite a government protest ban, mass demonstrations erupted nationwide following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on corruption charges, with crowds demanding democracy and chanting "people, rights, justice." Scholars of democracy view Turkey as a competitive authoritarian regime in which the ruling party uses institutions such as the courts to attack their political opponents.

Su Cassiano/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty

Kim Lane Scheppele, a Princeton sociologist who has spent years tracking Hungary, is also deeply concerned: "We are on a very fast slide into what's called competitive authoritarianism."

When these scholars use the term "authoritarianism," they aren't talking about a system like China's, a one-party state with no meaningful elections. Instead, they are referring to something called "competitive authoritarianism," the kind scholars say they see in countries such as Hungary and Turkey.

In a competitive authoritarian system, a leader comes to power democratically and then erodes the system of checks and balances. Typically, the executive fills the civil service and key appointments — including the prosecutor's office and judiciary — with loyalists. He or she then attacks the media, universities and nongovernmental organizations to blunt public criticism and tilt the electoral playing field in the ruling party's favor.

"The government would still have elections and would nominally be democratic," says Rory Truex, a political scientist at Princeton who focuses on China. "But those elections would no longer be free and fair."

A man walks next to a graffiti with the image of the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez in Caracas. Political scientists say that President Trump does not enjoy the huge popular support that leaders like Chavez harnessed to dominate their nation's political systems.

A man walks next to a graffiti with the image of the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez in Caracas. Political scientists say that President Trump does not enjoy the huge popular support that leaders like Chávez harnessed to dominate their nation's political systems.

Raul Arboleda/AFP via Getty Images

While the vast majority of scholars surveyed say Trump is pushing the country toward autocracy, other professors strongly disagree. James Campbell, a retired political scientist at the University at Buffalo, SUNY, says Trump is using legitimate presidential powers to address long-standing problems. Campbell points to Trump's use of tariffs to try to push companies to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States. In recent decades, economic globalization led to catastrophic layoffs of everyone from furniture makers in North Carolina to auto assembly-line workers in the Midwest as firms sent work overseas, especially to China.

"I think they've done an excellent job," Campbell says of the Trump administration.

Campbell adds that he thinks many political scientists may see Trump as autocratic because they don't like him or his politics.

"I think most of them are coming from the political left," he says. "There's a comfort in all of them getting together and saying, 'Oh, Trump's a bad guy. He's authoritarian.' "

NPR reached out to the Trump administration, which has yet to respond.

President Trump has spoken admiringly of Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban. U.S. scholars of democracy say Orban has used various tactics, including stocking state agencies with loyalists and attacking media business models, to turn Hungary into a competitive authoritarian state. Under competitive authoritarianism, there are still elections, but the playing field is tilted in favor of the ruling party.

President Trump has spoken admiringly of Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. U.S. scholars of democracy say Orbán has used various tactics, including stocking state agencies with loyalists and attacking media business models, to turn Hungary into a competitive authoritarian state. Under competitive authoritarianism, there are still elections, but the playing field is tilted in favor of the ruling party.

Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images

But many democracy scholars say the Trump administration is using tactics employed by autocrats, and they point to specific actions. For instance, Trump's Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is investigating all the major broadcast outlets — except for Rupert Murdoch's Fox, which owns the pro-Trump Fox News Channel.

The FCC is questioning how CBS edited an interview of Trump's 2024 rival, Kamala Harris, and whether NPR and PBS are complying with regulations on corporate underwriting spots. The FCC can revoke local broadcast licenses, which could damage the networks financially.

Princeton's Scheppele says this is reminiscent of Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Orbán took aim at the business model of Hungarian media, which heavily relied on state advertising.

"Overnight, [Orbán] cuts all the advertising to the independent and opposition media," Scheppele says. "They all have a hole blown in their budget."

In another example, Trump has withheld or threatened to withhold billions of dollars from universities, including Harvard, Princeton and Columbia, citing concerns about antisemitism. Scheppele says Orbán also targeted universities that had been critical of his government.

"In the first two years, Orbán cut the university budgets by 40%," she says.

Another way to measure authoritarianism, according to Levitsky, is whether publicly opposing the government comes with a cost. He says — under Trump — it does. For instance, Trump has issued executive orders barring lawyers with firms he doesn't like from entering government buildings and representing government contractors.

Fear of government retribution is now spreading through society. A scholar who spoke to NPR for this story later asked not to be quoted, saying he feared the Trump administration might try to punish him by slashing research grants he's working on. In a recent NPR series on free speech, many people did not want to be identified by name.

A demonstrator holds a banner as teachers, students and their sympathisers protest in central Budapest at the headquarters of the Interior Ministry on September 2, 2024, after the head of the renowned Madach Imre high school was sacked last week for not implementing a government-mandated "smartphone ban". In August, schools were instructed to collect students' phones and smart devices during the teaching hours in a decree signed by nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The principal of the Madach Imre High School was fired, after it refused to implement the ban, citing a part of the regulation.

Teachers, students and their sympathizers protest in central Budapest following a government-mandated "smartphone ban" in schools that was signed by nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images

But even some scholars who say Trump has autocratic tendencies think the American system should be able to withstand them.

Kurt Weyland, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, says that so far the lower courts are checking Trump. He also says Trump does not have the overwhelming popular support that autocratic leaders such as Venezuela's Hugo Chávez and El Salvador's Nayib Bukele enjoyed and that was crucial to their ability to change their country's political systems.

For instance, Bukele, who met with Trump at the White House last week, has seen approval ratings over 90% and won reelection last year by a landslide. By contrast, a recent poll showed Trump's approval rating falling to 43% and he was reelected with just under half the popular vote.

"These populist leaders managed to engineer new constitutions that seriously concentrated power and that were the breakpoint that put those countries on the path toward competitive authoritarian rule," says Weyland, who wrote Democracy's Resilience to Populism's Threat: Countering Global Alarmism. "In the United States, that is out of the question."

Bright Line Watch conducted its survey in early February. It plans to put another in the field soon. Carey, one of the co-directors, expects political scientists to downgrade America's democracy even further.